Tom Dundon’s standard: a market deal

Rip City,
Not Rip Off

Renovate Moda. Keep the Blazers. Make a deal, not a donation.

Portland owns the Moda Center. On August 12 Council adopted the $573M term sheet 8–4 — after floor amendments added $3.17M/yr rent where the draft had a dollar. As adopted, the public’s priced return is ~$163–185M over 20 years — still no revenue share, still no required private construction dollar. The binding documents come back by December 31. That is where the remaining terms get set.

What December must contain → Sign the Fan Compact Get the December alert

July 17 → August 12

Draft → amended → adopted 8–4

Rent added on the floor ($3.17M/yr, 7–5) · development rights retained · County capped at $101.6M. The outcome →

Now → December 31

The definitive documents

Lease + development agreement drafted to be “comparable” to the Bridge Agreement. What must survive →

By December 31

The binding vote

Council votes the real contracts. What must appear →

We’re just going to get a market deal and we’re going to be fully committed to it.

Asked whether ownership would have “skin in the game,” Dundon said public representatives should negotiate terms that are “great for them.” We took him at his word: we wrote the market deal — line by line, every term sourced to a deal his side already signed in Raleigh.

Read the Fair-Deal Term Sheet →

Tom Dundon · Blazers introductory press conference, April 2, 2026 · full video

Five numbers decide this

$573M	What the adopted term sheet (Aug 12) asks the public to put up: State $365M + City $120M + County $88M — every required construction dollar public. The document, scored →
$253M	What the City’s own consultant priced the full renovation scope at, in today’s dollars. The study →
~$163–185M	Everything the public is priced to get back over the 20-year lease as adopted — the $3M/yr tax offset plus the $3.17M/yr rent councilors added on the floor. The balance sheet →
$1.1–1.2B	What a market-standard package returns the public over 20 years, priced from 17 peer deals. The deals →
~$2.5B	What the building hands the operator across the lease — from an arena he rents for $1 a year. The money map →

How these numbers fit together →

A market deal passes three tests. The adopted term sheet still passes none.

Benchmarked?

Fails · $0

Ownership’s required construction money is still zero as adopted. Peer ownerships paid 18–52% of renovation capital — in the State’s own comparables.

Tested?

Never

The operating contract has never been competitively bid or priced — and the amended sheet extends the Coliseum operatorship ~20 more years on current terms, unbid. The market test →

Reviewed?

Partial

SB 1501 orders an expert review of deal terms during this negotiation. What surfaced July 9 covers funding splits — not rent, relocation, or revenue shares — and it never entered the record Council voted on.

August 12 moved the protections and one economic line — rent. The economics column still ends at $3.17M + $3M a year, against a $30–45M/yr break-even and peer packages that share revenue. Every term, scored →

What a fair deal includes — where it stands after August 12

Five fixes — each copied from a deal somebody already signed, most of them by this same ownership. December’s documents decide the rest:

Private capital: ownership funds the money-making spaces — ~$245M, mid-range among peers. Still $0 required as adopted.
Rent: $4.5M a year — what this ownership pays in Raleigh. Partly won: $3.17M/yr, but it starts only at completion and its escalator has no floor.
A formula PILOT: the greatest of the certified floor, the county’s own formula, or full appraisal. Not adopted — the $3M + 5% offset stands.
A revenue share: a minority public share of the new premium, naming, and parking money. Not adopted.
Nothing erased: the ~$164M repair claim preserved, audit rights with copies, protections that survive drafting. At risk: the directive says “comparable,” not “preserved.”

All 18 terms, priced and sourced →

Will they leave?

The Cityowns the building. The team operates it for $1 a year — and conveyed it by signed contract.

$1.5–5.7Bthe full-friction cost of actually moving: breached contracts, court, the league’s fee, a new arena.

22–8how the owners voted the last time a team tried to move to Seattle.

Relocation is not a unilateral threat — it is a priced decision the City can make ruinous. The leverage, clause by clause →

Between now and December

The binding documents are due back by December 31. August 12 proved the pressure works — held votes became rent. Three things to do between now and then:

Get the December alert

One email the day the documents are published, and one when each hearing is scheduled. That is the whole list.

Sign the Fan Compact

Five league-wide rules that would end the city-versus-city arena auction — delivered to the league office at one sold-out Moda Center.

— of 19,393 signed

Read & sign →

Read the December list

Nine things the binding documents must contain — starting with nothing erased, a private construction minimum, and rent finished.

All nine, term-mapped →

The watch log — every development, dated →

Don’t take our word — take the documents’

The Public Balance Sheet91¢ / 9¢ who puts cash in

Every priced arena dollar — badged Verified, Calculated, Modeled, or Unpriced.

What He Makes~$2.5B over the lease

The operator’s revenue, stream by stream, from a $1-a-year building.

The Renovation Study$253M vs. the public ask

The City’s own price — and the $341M of revenue upgrades inside the scope.

Peer Arena Deals17 deals since 2013

Portland’s is the only one with zero private capital and zero rent.

The full evidence library →

The questions everyone asks

All 21 straight answers →

Act now

Council counts constituents — and the December documents are being negotiated now. This tool builds the letter on your device and opens your own email app; nothing is transmitted or stored. Two minutes.

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Dear Councilor,

Thank you for August 12. The floor amendments were real: rent on a building the City owns, retained development rights, a directive that final agreements deliver a return on investment, and the Bridge Agreement named as the standard for protections. Please hold every one of them, unchanged, through the definitive documents.

But the documents you receive by December 31 will supersede the term sheet - and the economics column still ends at $3.17M rent plus a $3M offset, roughly a fifth of the $30-45M/yr the public needs just to break even on $573M. Before any binding vote, please require:

1. Nothing erased: the amended lease states it is not a novation, and the City's accrued "first-class" repair claim (~$164M, Sections 5.4 and 10.2) is preserved or expressly priced. "Comparable" protections is not preservation.
2. A private construction minimum with a number on it - peer ownerships paid 18-62% of renovation capital - or at minimum a one-for-one operator match on the $275M of future public capital.
3. Rent finished: paid to the General Fund, starting at first public disbursement rather than at substantial completion, with a zero floor on the escalator, never creditable against other obligations.
4. A waterfall on the $275M: the operator's own maintenance and capital obligations are paid first, at its cost; public capital never backfills them.
5. Revenue sharing from premium spaces, naming rights, and parking - never credited against required private investment.
6. A PILOT set by formula, not negotiation: the greatest of the certified pre-exemption floor ($1.2-1.5M/yr), the county's own construction formula ($5.1-9.4M/yr after completion), or appraised equivalency.
7. The Coliseum carved out: the amended sheet extends Rip City's VMC operatorship roughly 20 more years on current terms - a concession that deserves its own valuation and its own vote, not a buried sentence.
8. The documents published 30 days before the vote, with a public exceptions memo listing every departure from the term sheet - and the SB 1501 Sec. 6(2)(a) comparables review entered into the record.

And close the blank exhibits first: Exhibit A, the renovation budget behind the $573M, still reads "to be attached" in the adopted document.

Portland can keep the team, renovate the arena, and still insist that public money produce public value. August 12 proved that held votes become terms. December is where the rest either appears in writing or disappears in drafting.

Respectfully,

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